The few are crucial to a win

  In the 1998 election, there were just 6000 votes in seven seats which nudged the Howard Government back into office.

  And to give an idea of just how close Kim Beazley came to winning the last election - those 6000 votes accounted for just 0.05 per cent of Australia's 12 million voters. They are the people who will decide largely who wins or loses this election [to be held on Saturday, November 10, 2001].

  There are 15 key seats across the nation with margins of less than one per cent.

  In WA, the most marginal is Canning, held by Labor backbencher Jane Gerick with just a 0.6 per cent buffer. She won the seat in 1988 from Liberal Ricky Johnston. Liberal candidate Don Randall, the former Liberal MP for the seat of Swan, is challenging.

  Ms Gerick is recovering from leukaemia but is confident she can hold on to the seat. The Liberal Party believes it can win it.

  Labor also may struggle to keep Stirling, which Jann McFarlane holds by just 1.4 per cent. The former editor-in-chief of WA Newspapers, Bob Cronin, has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate and both he and his party believe they can win it.

  Labor also holds Swan by less than 3 per cent.

  Hasluck is one of three new seats for this election, the other two being in the Northern Territory, and is notionally Labor.

  Almost all the State electorates within Hasluck's boundaries went to Labor in the WA election at the start of the year.

  In Queensland, opinion polls show that Labor has a very strong chance of picking up seats and it is where the coalition Government faces its biggest threat. The Liberal Party is hanging on to the coastal Queensland seat of Herbert, which includes Townsville, by just 0.1 per cent.

  The Nationals are clinging to Hinkler, which takes in Bundaberg and Gladstone, by 0.34 per cent. One Nation could be expected to poll well in Hinkler.

  The Liberals also could lose the urban seat of Moreton in Brisbane with a swing greater than 0.57 per cent.

  But on the other hand, former Australian Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot has a lead of only 0.12 per cent on her Queensland seat of Dickson which she won in 1998 after defecting from the Democrats. Labor cannot afford to lose this seat.

  Nor can it afford to lose the Tasmanian seat of Bass, held by backbencher Michelle O'Byrne who took it from the Liberals in 1998 with a buffer of 0.19 per cent.

  What happens in northern NSW is anyone's guess.

  Community Services Minister Larry Anthony has held the coastal seat of Richmond for the National Party since 1996 but could lose easily if there was a swing greater that 0.83 per cent. The imposition of the goods and services tax on caravan park users has hurt voters in his seat, where there are a lot of retirees.

  Employment Services Minister Mal Brough won the Queensland seat of Longman for the Liberals when it was declared for the 1996 election and his margin is only 0.92 per cent.

  Mr Brough has had a tough time defending his handling of alleged rorts by an employment agency in his portfolio and has been a prime target for the Labor Party.

      © 2001 West Australian Newspapers Limited   All Rights Reserved.
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COMMENT: For the regular electoral cheats around Australia, it would be relatively easy to match the required 6000 votes by enrolling fictitious names and voting in those names. One "bit player" alone was convicted on 47 charges, as the Criminal Justice Commission, Queensland, executive summary of April 2001 states:
  This Inquiry was triggered when a member of the Queensland Branch of the Australian Labor Party (ALP), Karen Lynn Ehrmann, alleged publicly that widespread electoral fraud in internal Party ballots was being carried out in Queensland by Party members.
  At the time of making this claim, Ehrmann had just pleaded guilty to 47 charges relating to the forgery and uttering of electoral enrolment forms. At her sentencing in the Townsville District Court, in August 2000, she described herself as merely a 'bit player' in a 'well-known scheme' carried out by the Australian Workers Union faction within the ALP to commit electoral fraud in Queensland. -- Criminal Justice Commission, Queensland, http://www.cjc.qld.gov.au/shepinquiry/executivesummary.shtml or click electqueensland.htm

Another Queenslander was charged early in October 2001. See Barbagallo.htm.